JK 8-10 April 2022
Game 1 | Friday 8 April 2022 8pm
Newcastle vs Wolves
| JK betting angle | Joe Willock to score | |
| Odds | 6/1 | 7.0 |
| Lost | * | |
* Willock wasn’t in the squad. Knee injury on Friday so probably would’ve dodged the bet.
| Score | 1-0 |
| JK score prediction | 2-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Eddie Howe has only lost one of his 10 Premier League home matches, with that solitary defeat coming at the hands of Manchester City. The atmosphere at St James’ Park and around the club in general is certainly creating a tough environment for visiting teams. Three straight defeats have stalled their progress towards safety but all of those setbacks came on the road. A return to home comforts on Friday night under the lights should see them snap that losing run.
Joe Willock is a player who has landed us a couple of touches this season and his goalscorer prices with Sky Bet remain juicy enough to attack again.
Eddie Howe has found the perfect role for Willock in this system where he can utilise his clever runs into dangerous areas. It’s taking him into great positions which has rocketed his shots per game and expected goals average. Since mid-January, he leads the way for Newcastle for shots (21), expected goals (2.47) and goals (2 - joint with Ryan Fraser and Fabian Schar). With Chris Wood woefully out of form, scoring one goal in his last 17 starts for Burnley and Newcastle, Willock is Newcastle’s most likely route to goal. That makes his price of 6/1 with Sky Bet to score anytime rather silly.
Willock (6/1 to score) was injured before the game.
Newcastle 1, Wolves 0.
Game 2 | Saturday 9 April 2022 12.30pm
Everton vs Manchester United
| JK betting angle | Jadon Sancho to score first | |
| Odds | 9/1 | 10.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
The results of last week’s betting angles and predictions were profitable but, in typical style, the chosen angle that was used as the headline let us down. “Sancho to star in a Man Utd win” was all sorts of wrong with United - and Sancho in particular - turning in a performance that once again sent out alarm bells ringing for the problems behind the scenes at the club.
Up until last weekend, Sancho had been growing in confidence and showing signs of the player we all saw at Borussia Dortmund. I’m willing to forgive him for that bad day at the office and remain convinced he is overpriced in an array of markets involving his performance. The bet that stands out here is his first goalscorer price of 9/1 with Sky Bet.
Everton are a very flaky unit defensively and although you can’t argue with Jonjoe Kenny’s application and enthusiasm levels, question marks remain about his ability as a Premier League defender. He’ll be tasked with keeping a lid on Sancho and that looks a battle the United winger can win.
Sancho (9/1 to score first) didn't.
He didn’t have a shot.
Everton 1, Manchester United 0.
Game 3 | Saturday 9 April 2022 3pm
Arsenal vs Brighton
| JK betting angle | Alexis Mac Allister to score | |
| Odds | 7/2 | 4.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-2 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Monday evening’s poor outing at Crystal Palace for Arsenal - one I watched first-hand at Selhurst Park - wasn’t a performance I had seen coming. But a closer inspection of their attacking numbers of late does paint a picture that perhaps Arsenal have been overperforming since the turn of the year.
Their troubles are highlighted by the fact they have failed to score a single goal from non-set piece scenarios in their last four matches, dating back to March 6. What is in their favour here is that one goal probably will be enough to beat Brighton, who have failed to score in six of their last seven Premier League matches. However, Arsenal at odds-on against such a well-coached side like the Seagulls just isn’t something I want to invest in. I’ll play the draw.
One player that has quietly slipped under the radar this season for Brighton is Alexis Mac Allister. Much of Brighton’s dynamic play through the centre come via Mac Allister’s crisp and creative passing. His performances have reached another level over the past two months to such an extent he started his first match for Argentina in their World Cup qualifier with Venezuela.
That experience should only further enhance his authority in midfield for Brighton and he looks overpriced to find the scoresheet at The Emirates. Since scoring a double at Everton in January, he has gone 847 minutes without a goal, but he has been peppering the opposition goal with quality strikes. No player in the Premier League without a goal in that period has managed more shots on goal than Mac Allister (25) with seven of those coming in the 0-0 draw with Norwich. On another day he could have had a couple of goals to his name as two of those efforts were just a whisker away. He has the quality to punish Arsenal if they afford him space to shoot.
Mac Allister (7/2 to score) didn't.
He didn’t have a shot.
Arsenal 1, Brighton 2.
Game 4 | Saturday 9 April 2022 3pm
Watford vs Leeds
| JK betting angle | Hassane Kamara to be carded | |
| Odds | 3/1 | 4.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 0-3 |
| JK score prediction | 1-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
With their survival hopes dwindling by the week, many of Watford’s players will be motivated about keeping their own performances high in order to catch the eye of potential top-level clubs. One of those players who looks a Premier League player all over is Hassane Kamara. The Ivory Coast full-back is an aggressive defender that relishes the one-on-one battle with a winger. He’ll be tested up against Raphinha in this one and I like his price of picking up a card.
Since joining from Nice in January, only John McGinn has won more tackles in the Premier League than Kamara (26) and only Matty Cash and Romain Perraud have committed more fouls than Kamara when analysing just defenders in that period (15). The Leeds winger is a magnet for opposition cards, drawing 15 bookings since the start of last season. Kamara may be about to join that list.
Kamara (3/1 to be carded) wasn't.
He made four tackles and committed one foul.
Watford 0, Leeds 3.
Game 5 | Saturday 9 April 2022 3pm
Southampton vs Chelsea
| JK betting angle | Over 3.5 goals | |
| Odds | 12/5 | 3.4 |
| $100 returned | $340 | |
| Score | 0-6 |
| JK score prediction | 1-3 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
If you have been backing the over goal-line in Southampton games this season you will be swimming in profit.
There have been two goals or more in their last 23 games across all competitions, producing an overall average of 3.4 goals per game. That is a fair sample size and one we should take huge confidence from when assessing the goal-line in this fixture. Ralph Hasenhuttl isn’t going to change his style for a visit of a top-four side, he’ll encourage his team to press aggressively as they always do which should make for a goal heavy game.
There have been 73 goals in Southampton’s 21 games against the traditional ‘big six’ since the start of the 20/21 season - keeping in line with that 3.4 overall average.
With all that in mind, the chances of this game producing four or more goals must have a better chance of landing than the 12/5 with Sky Bet implies. It’s certainly up there with the best bet of the weekend material.
Southampton 0, Chelsea 6. Over 3.5 goals was 12/5.
Combined xG was 4.90.
Game 6 | Saturday 9 April 2022 5.30pm
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
| JK betting angle | Tottenham to win to nil | |
| Odds | 3/1 | 4.0 |
| $100 returned | $400 | |
| Score | 0-4 |
| JK score prediction | 0-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
I remain fully convinced that Tottenham are going places under Antonio Conte.
Some tweaks over the summer in key areas such as goalkeeper, wing-back and perhaps another central midfielder could take Spurs closer to Manchester City and Liverpool than what is foreseen by the markets. Conte has shown he knows how to operate in terms of recruiting players with the right kind of character - just look at the impact of Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski.
The balance across the Tottenham backline with Christian Romero, Eric Dier and Ben Davies also has an impressive look to it. Spurs have won five of the last six when all those three have been fit and available - that base has helped them score 22 goals in those fixtures and concede just five. Romero especially looks a player capable of becoming one of the best in the division under the watch of Conte. I think he can help Spurs to another victory in this one, with a clean sheet to boot.
Villa 0, Tottenham 4. Tottenham to win to nil was 3/1.
Bit lucky maybe. Have to ask Mick.
Villa xG was 1.81.
Game 7 | Sunday 10 April 2022 2pm
Norwich vs Burnley
| JK betting angle | Milot Rashica to score first | |
| Odds | 8/1 | 9.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
If Burnley can’t beat Norwich, then they don’t deserve to stay up.
I don’t have faith in Norwich in the match result markets but Milot Rashica is a player I’m warming to. When weighing it all up, he probably is the most talented player on the pitch for this fixture and you’d think a player ticking that box would be a lot shorter than 8/1 with Sky Bet to grab the first goal.
The silky attacker played more centrally in the absence of Josh Sargent at Brighton, providing a bit more support to Teemu Pukki and he wasted Norwich’s best chance of the match when spooning over from close range late on. That was a surprising miss considering he’d scored twice for Kosovo over the international break. He can find the net in this one.
Rashica (8/1 to score first) didn't.
Rashica had three shots on target with a total xG of 0.18.
Norwich 2, Burnley 0.
Game 8 | Sunday 10 April 2022 2pm
Brentford vs West Ham
| JK betting angle | Brentford to win | |
| Odds | 7/4 | 2.75 |
| $100 returned | $275 | |
| Score | 2-0 |
| JK score prediction | 2-0 |
| Odds | 11.85/1* |
| $10 returned | $128.50 |
* Average odds of 26 bookies. Longest odds: 14/1 (188BET). Shortest odds: 8.28/1 (GGBET).
What JK said:
Calling West Ham a ‘one man team’ is probably a little extreme but the more I watch them, the more I’m convinced that Michail Antonio’s freshness and form is absolutely critical to the way they play. He was sensational in West Ham’s 2-1 win over Everton, clearly benefitting from a break to rest those overworked limbs. The problem for the Hammers for this encounter is that those limbs are going to be overworked yet again after the midweek Europa League performance.
Surely, ahead of the second leg on Thursday, David Moyes will be pondering giving Antonio the weekend off to fully recharge him. And on both occasions Antonio hasn’t started in the Premier League this season, West Ham lost. It makes Brentford look a very tempting price to take all three points at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Even without factoring in the Antonio angle, the case for a home win is strong based on Brentford’s performance metrics at their own ground this season. It is a process which is actually the sixth-best home record in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals. Put your faith in the Bees.
Brentford (7/4 to win) 2, West Ham 0.
Brentford xG 1.53 | West Ham xG 0.45.
Game 9 | Sunday 10 April 2022 2pm
Leicester vs Crystal Palace
| JK betting angle | James Maddison to score | |
| Odds | 11/5 | 3.2 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-1 |
| JK score prediction | 2-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
With Leicester’s focus elsewhere on European commitments with their second leg with PSV on Thursday, this should be an opportunity for Crystal Palace to extend their unbeaten run in all competitions to 12 matches. Patrick Vieira has got them dancing to his tune. They embodied their manager with an aggressive showing in their 3-0 win over Arsenal. If they hit those physicality levels again then Leicester may not have the energy in their legs to match them.
Leicester’s attack is purring though, averaging nearly two goals per 90 minutes over their last 25 matches, and I’m keen to back James Maddison - if selected - to find the net at 11/5 with Sky Bet.
Maddison watched the likes of Emile Smith Rowe and Conor Gallagher be selected for England’s international friendlies last month, but the Leicester man is arguably in the form of his life. He looks to have improved his ability in getting into more dangerous areas of the pitch with a return of eight Premier League goals this season to show for it. That matches his best return in a Premier League season and he still has 10 games to go.
Maddison (11/5 to score) didn't.
He had three blocked shots with a total xG of 0.38.
Leicester 2, Crystal Palace 1.
Game 10 | Sunday 10 April 2022 4.30pm
Manchester City vs Liverpool
| JK betting angle | Back the draw | |
| Odds | 12/5 | 3.4 |
| $100 returned | $340 | |
| Score | 2-2 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Whatever plans you have on Sunday afternoon. Cancel them. This is a fixture to get the pulse racing. You can forget about Barcelona vs Real Madrid being the most exciting fixture in world football these days. This modern-day rivalry between two sensational football teams is now the jewel in the Premier League crown. The world will be watching.
The narrative slapped all over this game surrounds this being a fixture where the title will be won and lost.
I’m not so sure.
There is so much football still to be played and I’m expecting both teams to be very aware that a draw wouldn’t be the worst result in the world.
From a punting view, the draw is never a bet many people want to back as natural human instinct involving football and betting wants us to back winners whilst feeling the excitement of a team winning or goals going in. And for that reason, the draw is often overlooked in big matches such as this where there is strong opinion and lots of talk on why Manchester City will win and why Liverpool will win. And all that noise can inflate the draw to a backable price, which it has done here at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
Those odds imply there is a 27.78 per cent chance of a stalemate. And, with so much on the line and the draw not being a bad result for either team, that percentage looks very low, hence my desire to get that price on my side. I’d have it closer to 35 per cent.
Also, in six matches this season in all competitions between Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (arguably the three best teams in Europe) the aggregate score line has ended 6-6 across the six encounters with four of the games ending up as a draw. Shut out all the noise, keep a cool head and back the most likely result, which is the draw.
Man City 2, Liverpool 2. The draw was 12/5.
Man City xG 1.63 | Liverpool xG 1.18.
JK best bet
1pt on Joe Willock to score in Newcastle vs Wolves & Alexis Mac Allister to score in Brighton vs Arsenal
Odds: 33/1
Lost: 1pt
What JK said:
With Newcastle playing Wolves on Friday night, you will need to be sharp in getting this one on if you are keen to follow me in.
Eddie Howe has found the perfect role for Joe Willock in this system where he can utilise his clever runs into dangerous areas. It’s taking him into great positions which has rocketed his shots per game and expected goals average Since mid-January, he leads the way for Newcastle for shots (21), expected goals (247) and goals (2 - JOInt with Ryan Fraser and Fabian Schar). With Chris Wood woefully out of form, scoring one goal in his last 17 starts for Burnley and Newcastle, Willock is Newcastle’s most likely route to goal. That makes his price of 6/1 with Sky Bet to score anytime rather silly.
Double him up with Alexis Mac Allister. Much of Brighton’s dynamic play through the centre come via Mac Allister’s crisp and creative passing. His performances have reached another level over the past two months to such an extent he started his first match for Argentina in their World Cup qualifier with Venezuela.
That experience should only further enhance his authority in midfield for Brighton and he looks overpriced to find the scoresheet at the Emirates. Since scoring a double at Everton in January, he has gone 847 minutes without a goal, but he has been peppering the opposition goal with quality strikes. No player in the Premier League without a goal in that period has managed more shots on goal than Mac Allister (25) with seven of those coming in the 0-0 draw With Nomich. On another day he could have had a couple of goals to his name as two of those efforts were Just a whisker away. He has the quality to punish Arsenal if they afford him space to shoot.
JK’s review of his best bets from the following gameweek’s article:
How did our bets do last time?
On a weekend when not much got my value-seeking radar beeping, my only official bet of Joe Willock and Alexis Mac Allister to score fell pretty flat. Willock wasn’t included in the Newcastle squad so that part of the bet was void meaning we had one point running on Mac Allister to score for Brighton at Arsenal at 4/1. The Seagulls attacked with great intent and found a way to the Arsenal goal twice but nothing dropped the Argentine’s way. He remains a player to watch in the goalscoring markets for the remainder of the season though - as does Willock when he returns to fitness.
JK best bets P+L up to 10 April 2022 = +67.5