JK 23-25 April 2022
Game 1 | Saturday 23 April 2022 12.30pm
Arsenal vs Manchester United
| JK betting angle | Arsenal to win & Emile Smith Rowe to score | |
| Odds | 7/2 | 4.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 3-1 |
| JK score prediction | 2-0 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Looking at the Manchester United price of 5/2 for an away win, the markets still have slight faith in them - but their season is over. Heads have gone. Minds are elsewhere. I’d be stunned if they win this game and I wouldn’t even back them at 6/1 let alone 5/2. Arsenal at a shade of odds-against (11/10 with Sky Bet) will be a popular selection. I wouldn’t put anyone off.
The stage is set for a fully fit Emile Smith Rowe to showcase his talent on Saturday - he is a huge price in the various goalscorer markets considering he comes into this game on the back of his goal at Chelsea and the simple argument he is playing in an attacking front three against the Manchester United defence.
The 21-year-old has showcased his ability in dribs and drabs this season for Arsenal with injuries hampering his progress. When he is on it he is equally as dangerous as Bukayo Saka, but he has yet to command respect in the goalscorer markets. In the last month, he is averaging an expected goals figure per 90 minutes of 0.42 which marks him out as one of the most dangerous attackers in the league for chances falling his way. He possesses the quality to finish them, too.
A continuation of these types of numbers should result in Smith Rowe standing a fair chance of scoring again this weekend. And confidence should be flowing. His prices of 13/2 to score first and 5/2 anytime are worth following. As is the 7/2 for Arsenal to win with him scoring in the match.
Arsenal (backed to win) 3, Man Utd 1 but Smith Rowe (backed to score) didn't. (7/2 for the double.)
He didn’t have a shot and was replaced by Martinelli in the 64th minute.
Game 2 | Saturday 23 April 2022 3pm
Leicester vs Aston Villa
| JK betting angle | Leicester to win | |
| Odds | 17/10 | 2.7 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 0-0 |
| JK score prediction | 3-0 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
If you gave me a match bet for who will finish higher next season - Leicester or Aston Villa - I’d be all over Brendan Rodgers’ side. This blip of a season could still end in triumph with the Europa Conference League and there have been signs of late that the core of an exciting side remains very much there. A few shrewd additions in the summer could see them challenge back towards the top four.
Everton should have been buried long before Richarlison’s dramatic stoppage-time equaliser on Wednesday, and City were unfortunate to lose 2-1 at Newcastle, too. The attacking flair and slick build-up that Rodgers craves has been there, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and James Maddison looking in great form.
Aston Villa can be a fiddly team to knock down away from home as they defend in numbers and compete in midfield, but the balance in their team looks miles off where Steven Gerrard would like it - as evidenced by a run of four straight defeats. I think Leicester, who can be backed at 17/10 for the win with Sky Bet, can make it five in pretty convincing fashion.
Leicester (17/10 to win) 0, Villa 0.
Leicester xG 0.30 | Villa xG 1.16 (but Mick didn’t agree).
Game 3 | Saturday 23 April 2022 3pm
Manchester City vs Watford
| JK betting angle | Joao Cancelo to score | |
| Odds | 13/2 | 7.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 5-1 |
| JK score prediction | 2-0 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Roy Hodgson has a fair enough record against Pep Guardiola to make the 1/12 with Sky Bet for a Manchester City win look very short. Many big-hitters will see it as a potential for their ‘buying money’ strategy but surely there are stronger 1/12 shots out there this weekend. The Hodgson defensive block saw his Crystal Palace side come away with a 2-2 and a 3-2 win in four meetings at the Etihad. However, does this Watford side have the fight, quality and belief to really upset a team who have lost just one of their last 22 games? Most certainly not.
They are unbackable, but City will obviously win, so we don’t need to be getting involved in those types of markets.
My main betting attack on the match will centre around the goalscoring of Joao Cancelo.
What a player he is. His link play with his teammates is seriously impressive and results in the full-back enjoying plenty of space to work with in the final third.
And once he gets into these dangerous positions, he’s happy to fire shots at goal - 64, to be precise, over the season. No other Manchester City player has posted more, so it’s surprising to note he’s only scored one goal in the Premier League this term. I’d expect him to go close to doubling that return between now and the end of the season.
Cancelo (13/2 to score) didn't.
He had two shots (one on target) but an xG of 0.07.
Man City 5, Watford 1.
Game 4 | Saturday 23 April 2022 3pm
Norwich vs Newcastle
| JK betting angle | Dan Burn to score first | |
| Odds | 33/1 | 34.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 0-3 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Eddie Howe’s side will be a popular selection to beat the basement boys at 21/20 with Sky Bet after winning nine of their last 13 Premier League games. However, seven of those wins have only come by one goal and their overall expected goals data does have them overperforming their results output. Although Norwich will be playing Championship football next season they are a much harder team to beat under Dean Smith and did win their last home game 2-0 against Burnley. I think they can get a point.
Regular readers will know it requires patience to stick with some of my theories at attacking big prices. And that’s the case with Dan Burn to score again, especially against a Norwich team that ship a huge amount of chances from set pieces. Burn’s going to pop up before the end of the campaign.
Good quality chances have fallen Burn’s way in his 10 starts for Newcastle which have equated to an expected goals figure of 0.97, including three shots on goal in his last three games, where he has been the target for every set piece pumped into the box. He’s the value play to score against a side that have faced the most shots and conceded the highest amount of expected goals from set pieces.
Burn (33/1 to score first) didn't
He had one off-target shot with an xG of 0.05.
Norwich 0, Newcastle 3.
But JK said the following week:
… Dan Burn came within a whisker of landing us a 40/1 first goalscorer winner last weekend against Norwich for Newcastle …
Game 5 | Saturday 23 April 2022 5.30pm
Brentford vs Tottenham
| JK betting angle | 0-0 correct score at half-time | |
| Odds | 2/1 | 3.0 |
| $100 returned | $300 | |
| Score | 0-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
I’m happy to back the theory that this game could be a slow burner. Brentford have only scored four goals in the first half of their home games this season - no team have netted fewer. This early defensive solidity in matches is giving Thomas Frank’s side a platform to build from as the match progresses. It could be a smart move, too, with Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son being such a dangerous partnership when space is afforded. As Brighton showed last weekend, if you restrict space for those two, Spurs don’t carry much attacking quality in other areas of the pitch.
In five of Brentford’s last six home matches the teams have gone in goalless at the break, and with Tottenham’s confidence perhaps a little shaky after last weekend, this game could go the same way.
Brentford 0, Tottenham 0.
So obviously at half-time it was Brentford 0, Tottenham 0 (2/1 on the half time correct score).
Game 6 | Sunday 24 April 2022 2pm
Burnley vs Wolves
| JK betting angle | Wolves to win & over 2.5 goals | |
| Odds | 9/2 | 5.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Not many people are mentioning Wolves when it comes to the European race but a seventh-placed finish would be good enough for European football so there is plenty to play for. It looks a straight shootout for that spot with West Ham, who obviously have the added workload of potentially three more Europa League games to negotiate. If Wolves can maintain their form over the next few weeks, the 11/4 with Sky Bet for them to finish above West Ham does look a spot of value.
Unusually for the time of season, Wolves head to Burnley on the back of a 15-day period without a match whilst Burnley have had an emotional time with the sacking of Sean Dyche. This game will be their sixth in 20 days, and that does make the 17/10 for an away win rather tempting. I’d be happy to add over 2.5 goals to that bet too looking at the goal-line which is set very low. Despite their low goal expectancy, all Wolves’s last five wins have seen the overs land and with Burnley knowing only wins will do from here, I’m expecting them to play their part in a goal heavy game.
Double fail.
Burnley 1, Wolves 0. Wolves to win & over 2.5 goals was 9/2.
Game 7 | Sunday 24 April 2022 2pm
Brighton vs Southampton
| JK betting angle | Back the draw & under 2.5 goals | |
| Odds | 3/1 | 4.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-2 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
If it looks like a draw, smells like a draw and tastes like a draw, then it’s probably going to be a draw.
Just one point separates these two evenly matches sides in the Premier League table whilst if you look at the four previous meetings the aggregate score has ended 6-6 in games separated by fine margins. Adding under 2.5 goals into the equation also looks a smart play. Brighton’s upturn in results in the past month has been down to a higher conversion rate in front of goal but their superb defensive process is at the heart of Graham Potter’s good work as a manager. Since he was appointed only Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea have a better expected goals against record than Brighton. This season, 24 of their 33 games have fallen under the 2.5 goals line - the highest ratio in the Premier League. Backing the 0-0 or 1-1 correct score at 3/1 with Sky Bet should give you a great run.
Brighton 2, Southampton 2.
So it was a draw but not under 2.5 goals. (3/1 for the double.)
Game 8 | Sunday 24 April 2022 2pm
Chelsea vs West Ham
| JK betting angle | West Ham to win | |
| Odds | 11/2 | 6.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Thomas Tuchel’s approach relies so much on a sound defensive base. When that base becomes flimsy, the whole ‘Tuchel-ball’ concept can go spectacularly wrong - as it has in games against Brentford and Arsenal of late. West Ham should fancy their chances of causing Chelsea a problem, especially with a rested Michail Antonio fit to lead the line.
Antonio, making his 400th career appearance, has had a full week to refresh ahead of a big week for the Hammers. He should be at full throttle here - and, as mentioned here before, his impact when well rested for West Ham is gigantic.
On the last 23 occasions where Antonio has had a rest period of seven days or more between games, West Ham have won 18 games, losing just two of those. Those defeats were a totally understandable defeat away at Manchester City and a 3-2 home defeat to Southampton on Boxing Day where Antonio scored and the Hammers won the expected goals battle in a positive performance.
Furthermore, Antonio’s personal record after a break seems to spike. In those aforementioned 23 matches, the striker has racked up 19 goal involvements (10 goals, nine assists) suggesting that his performance level increases after being able to rest.
Back him to score his first goal in 14 games in a West Ham win at a gigantic price of 11/1 with Sky Bet.
Chelsea 1, West Ham (11/2 to win) 0.
But Antonio was on the bench, so maybe would’ve dodged the bet on the Hammers to win (see “JK best bet” at the bottom of the page).
Game 9 | Sunday 24 April 2022 4.30pm
Liverpool vs Everton
| JK betting angle | Liverpool to score three goals | |
| Odds | 5/6 | 1.83 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-0 |
| JK score prediction | 3-0 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Everton’s only win in the last 22 Premier League meetings with Liverpool was the 2-0 win at Anfield in February 2021 - a game behind closed doors. They have won just four of the 44 Premier League meetings since the turn of the millennium. That was during an era when Liverpool were very beatable, so the task ahead of them now against one of the greatest teams we’ve ever seen in the Premier League is bordering on impossible. Everton have also failed to win any of their last 13 Premier League away games, since a 2-0 win vs Brighton in August, losing the last six in a row. They are 14/1 with Sky Bet to leave Anfield with three points. They say everything has a price, but I’m not sure an Everton win does. Would I back them at 100/1? Probably not.
Klopp’s men have scored 31 goals in their last 12 games and have scored three or more goals in eight of their last 14 games at Anfield. With one of the worst defences in Europe rocking up, it could be feeding time for the Liverpool strikers once again.
Liverpool (5/6 to score three goals) 2, Everton 0.
Liverpool’s xG was 2.07.
I didn’t like this bet at all. Odds on to score three goals in the Merseyside derby? Bit skinny for me.
Game 10 | Monday 25 April 2022 8pm
Crystal Palace vs Leeds
| JK betting angle | Leeds to win & Raphinha to score | |
| Odds | 9/2 | 5.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 0-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
If Patrick Viera was Graham Potter or Thomas Frank, would he be getting the same level of rave reviews at Crystal Palace? Last time I looked both of those clubs were higher in the table than Palace. I’m not pouring cold water on what has been a much-improved season for Palace but I do think they’ve been overhyped slightly due to who is managing them and what he achieved as a player. That could be worth exploring when assessing next season’s ante post markets, especially if they lose Conor Gallagher.
The first goal in their games is absolutely crucial to the outcome. Vieira’s team are unbeaten in 14 Premier League games when scoring first this season (W8 D6) as they rarely sit on leads. However, they haven’t won in 14 Premier League games when conceding first (D4 L9) - one of two Premier League teams without a win.
Leeds arrive having won three of their last four matches, and Jesse Marsch looks to have lit a fire under Raphinha, whose form has rocketed in recent weeks. With a player like him in the ranks, Leeds look very backable at 13/5 for the win against a team only four points above them in the table.
Double fail.
Palace 0, Leeds (backed to win) 0. Raphinha (backed to score) didn't. (9/2 for the double.)
Palace xG 2.14 | Leeds xG 0.59.
Raphinha’s xG was 0.15 (one blocked shot, one off-target).
JK best bet
1pt on West Ham to beat Chelsea away & Michail Antonio to score
Odds: 11/1
Lost - but no bet because Antonio was benched
JK’s review of his best bets from the following gameweek’s article:
How did we get on last weekend?
My theory on backing West Ham when Michail Antonio has had seven or more days rest was left as a non-runner as David Moyes decided to give the Hammers striker another rest. Nothing lost, nothing gained there.
JK best bets P+L up to 25 April 2022 = +65.5