JK 15-16 May 2022
Game 1 | Sunday 15 May 2022 12pm
Tottenham vs Burnley
| JK betting angle | Dwight McNeil to score | |
| Odds | 9/1 | 10.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Odds | 17/2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Tottenham may have ignited their top-four hopes on Thursday but this is a fiddly fixture for them. Burnley have the defensive capabilities to frustrate to a level that makes the 1/3 with Sky Bet on the home win very easy to oppose. I’m not comfortable backing Spurs on the back of a tight turnaround either, suffering surprise defeats to Middlesbrough, Southampton and indeed Burnley when having four or fewer days to prepare. I’m happy to take the draw.
Dwight McNeil remains a player of interest in the goalscorer market for Burnley.
He is carrying the fight for the club, performing excellently down the right as he cuts in on his preferred left foot.
The 22-year-old fell down the pecking order under Sean Dyche after struggling with his form but is back to his best and he has just three games left to break his goalscoring duck for the season.
He has the quality to find the net. McNeil has taken more shots (47) and more shots on target (14) without scoring than any other Premier League player this season. That is a wild statistic for a player of his calibre. The 9/1 with Sky Bet is worth following for him to score.
McNeil (9/1 to score) didn't.
He had one blocked shot with an xG of 0.05.
Tottenham 1, Burnley 1.
Game 2 | Sunday 15 May 2022 2pm
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
| JK betting angle | Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals | |
| Odds | 6/5 | 2.2 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-1 |
| JK score prediction | 2-2 |
| Odds | 12/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
End of season matches where nothing of note is on the line always should prick the ears of punters that like to play the goals market.
Just a quick look at the basic data tells the story that the average goals per game shoots up in May. Over the past five years, Premier League matches have averaged around 2.75 goals per game. In May that average jumps to 3.05 as teams play with more freedom with the shackles of pressure released. That 3.1 average has held up so far in May this season so games like this one should see the over goal line cop for punters.
And I’m happy to throw in both teams to score to boost the price.
Villa 1, Palace 1. Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals was 6/5.
Combined xG was 2.66.
Game 3 | Sunday 15 May 2022 2pm
Leeds vs Brighton
| JK betting angle | Leeds to win & under 2.5 goals | |
| Odds | 5/1 | 6.0 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-1 |
| JK score prediction | 1-0 |
| Odds | 17/2 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
This may look a tough task on paper for Leeds against a Brighton side that have beaten Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolves in their last six matches. However, with so much on the line for Leeds and nothing for Brighton, a home win should be backed at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Graham Potter continues to do a fine job with limited resources at Brighton but his teams are not reliable playing against defensive teams who play to stifle the opposition. His teams do have problems playing against deep and compact defensive lines - something Jesse Marsch simply has to go to for this encounter.
For example, in matches facing Sean Dyche, Roy Hodgson, Nuno Espirito Santo, Bruno Lage, David Moyes, Sam Allardyce and Steven Gerrard - all managers that concentrate on organisation and defensive structure - Potter’s record reads P29 W4 D15 L10.
Leeds simply have to win. And the Elland Road faithful can help them take their relegation fight to the last day.
Leeds 1, Brighton 1. Leeds to win & under 2.5 goals was 6/5.
Leeds xG 1.97 | Brighton xG 2.47.
Game 4 | Sunday 15 May 2022 2pm
Watford vs Leicester
| JK betting angle | James Maddison to score first | |
| Odds | 13/2 | 7.5 |
| $100 returned | $750 | |
| Score | 1-5 |
| JK score prediction | 0-2 |
| Odds | 9/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
In an average campaign for Leicester, James Maddison has shone brightly and showed why next season should be built around his skills playing in the free role. His goal against Norwich in the 3-0 win on Wednesday was his 15th goal across all competitions and his eighth in the Premier League from his last 19 appearances.
Jamie Vardy’s potency in front of goal does remain strong, especially against the weaker teams in the division but the first goalscorer market is far too skewed in his direction with him just 7/2 with Sky Bet to fire first. Maddison has proven he’s Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon this year so the 13/2 on him to bag the first goal does seem a little generous against a Watford team that will struggle to contain him.
Maddison (13/2 to score first) did.
He had two shots (the other was off target). His total xG was 0.53.
Watford 1, Leicester 5.
Game 5 | Sunday 15 May 2022 2pm
West Ham vs Manchester City
| JK betting angle | Jarrod Bowen to score | |
| Odds | 7/2 | 4.5 |
| $100 returned | $450 | |
| Score | 2-2 |
| JK score prediction | 1-3 |
| Odds | 9/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
This Manchester City side are probably now the greatest ever Premier League team, yes?
What they are doing to top-class football teams at the moment is frightening. Pep Guardiola’s side became the first team in English top-flight history to win five consecutive league games by a margin of at least three goals, achieving that feat while in the midst of the pressure-cooker environment of a title race. It’s led to them winning their last five Premier League games to an aggregate score of 22-1. Expect the same level of attacking poetry to be seen this weekend as they all-but wrap up the title.
City will be asked questions by this West Ham attack, though, in what should be a ‘you attack, we attack’ type of game.
Guardiola’s side are roaring to a Premier League title despite an injury crisis across their back four. Ruben Dias is out, Aymeric Laporte is almost certainly out and Fernandinho is a doubt. And the way Chiquinho gave Oleksandr Zinchenko - a fine footballer, but not a natural defender - the run-around in the midweek win at Wolves certainly bodes well for the possibilities of Jarrod Bowen having a big say in this match.
I’m fully expecting West Ham to score but the 4/7 with Sky Bet for that to happen has made me go hunting elsewhere and Bowen’s goalscorer price is a beauty at 7/2. He is West Ham’s top scorer this season with 16 goals (10 in the Premier League), scoring seven goals in his last 13 Premier League starts since January 12 as his stock continues to rise.
Bowen (7/2 to score) scored two.
He had three shots (his goals plus one blocked). His total xG was 1.63.
West Ham 2, Man City 2.
Game 6 | Sunday 15 May 2022 2pm
Wolves vs Norwich
| JK betting angle | Norwich to win | |
| Odds | 13/2 | 7.5 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 1-1 |
| JK score prediction | 0-2 |
| Odds | 40/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
I wouldn’t be going anywhere near Wolves at 2/5 with Sky Bet considering their miserable end to a campaign that threatened to be one to remember in February. Bruno Lage’s side have lost five of their last eight Premier League games at Molineux, including defeats to Leeds, Brighton and Crystal Palace. That’s not including a 1-0 reverse to Norwich in the FA Cup in February.
The ease at which Brighton and Manchester City breezed through their faltering back three should bode well for even a team like Norwich to find a way to goal. It’s now seven games without a clean sheet for Lage’s men whose mantra of being hard to beat is a thing of the past, conceding 16 goals in that period - no team in the Premier League has conceded more. A metric backed up by expected goals against which is the second-worst in that period (16.0).
Norwich, who do play with endeavour but little quality, are worth a swing at 13/2 with Sky Bet for the away win.
Such is the embarrassment of losing to the Canaries, two clubs decided to get rid of their manager in the aftermath as Sean Dyche at Burnley and Rafael Benitez were shown the door. I wouldn’t rule out the hat-trick.
Wolves 1, Norwich (13/2 to win) 1.
Wolves xG 1.05 | Norwich xG 1.32.
Game 7 | Sunday 15 May 2022 4.30pm
Everton vs Brentford
| JK betting angle | 0-0 correct score at half-time | |
| Odds | 15/8 | 2.87 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-3 |
| JK score prediction | 0-0 |
| Odds | 10/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
Everton’s Premier League survival will be confirmed if they win here and Leeds fail to win at home vs Brighton. They will also be safe barring a mathematical miracle with a draw if Leeds lose.
Frank Lampard’s approach of keeping the back door closed and playing no-nonsense football is working the oracle. In their last six Premier League games, Everton have conceded just four goals - an impressive feat when you factor in the level of opposition has included Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Despite a victory potentially being enough to guarantee their survival, I can’t see Lampard changing this risk-free style of football. Five of those last six matches have fallen under the 2.5 goals mark and the 4/5 with Sky Bet for that to happen again looks a solid wager.
I’m going searching for a bigger price though and like the look of the 0-0 half-time correct score at 15/8 with Sky Bet. In their last 11 games combined there have only been nine goals scored in the first half of games with seven of those games going in at the break goalless.
At half-time it was Everton 2, Brentford 1. 0-0 correct score at half-time was 15/8.
Everton 2, Brentford 3.
Game 8 | Monday 16 May 2022 8pm
Newcastle vs Arsenal
Bet: Dan Burn to have a shot
Odds: 10/11 | 1.91
Lost: $100
| JK betting angle | Dan Burn to have a shot | |
| Odds | 10/11 | 1.91 |
| Lost | $100 | |
| Score | 2-0 |
| JK score prediction | 1-1 |
| Odds | 6/1 |
| Lost | $10 |
What JK said:
The temptation was very high to row in with a Newcastle win at 16/5 with Sky Bet as Arsenal will have to show some serious mentality to get over Thursday but the Toon’s lack of motivation and record under Eddie Howe against the top five teams has tempered my enthusiasm.
Howe has faced all the top five teams since taking over and has lost all seven games to an aggregate score of 21-2. He has improved Newcastle but they have overachieved on what their performance metrics have put forward. I’ll play safe and take the draw.
My eyes have been drawn to Dan Burn for a potential betting angle.
If you take out the fixtures with Manchester City and Liverpool - two teams that give little opportunity for set piece situations to their opponents - then Burn has managed at least one shot in 10 of his 12 appearances for Newcastle. Howe isn’t afraid to go direct from wide free-kicks and Burn is always the one tasked with attacking the first contact. That is leading to good opportunities falling his way inside the box that have equated to a 0.91 expected goals figure. That marks him out as one of the most dangerous centre-backs in the opposition box.
The 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot is one of the best bets of the weekend.
Burn (10/11 to have a shot) didn't.
12 of Newcastle’s 14 players had a shot.
Newcastle 2, Arsenal 0.
JK best bet
1pt on Jarrod Bowen to have two shots & score & Oleksandr Zinchenko to be carded in West Ham vs Man City
Odds: 66/1
Lost: 1pt
What JK said:
Man City will be asked questions by this West Ham attack in what should be a ‘you attack, we attack’ type of game.
Pep Guardiola’s side are roaring to a Premier League title despite an injury crisis across their back four. Ruben Dias is out, Aymeric Laporte is most certainly out and Fernandinho is a doubt. And the way Chiquinho gave Oleksandr Zinchenko - a fine footballer, but not a natural defender - the run-around in the midweek win at Wolves certainly bodes well for the possibilities of Jarrod Bowen have a big say in this match.
The City defender was very lucky not to be carded for a cynical pull on the shirt of the Wolves man and Bowen has the trickery to draw a yellow from the Ukrainian. He hasn’t been booked since 2020 in the Premier League so we’re getting a monster price but he has been carded twice in the Champions League this season.
I’m fully expecting West Ham to score but the skinny 4/7 with Sky Bet has made me go hunting elsewhere and Bowen’s goalscorer price is a beauty at 7/2. He is West Ham’s top scorer this season with 16 goals (10 in the Premier League), scoring seven goals in last 13 Premier League starts since January 12 as his stock continues to rise.
Combining him to score, have two shots and for Zinchenko to be carded is the play.
Here’s the gif:
